SCOTT DETROW, HOST:
Canada will hold federal elections tomorrow, and last-minute campaigning took place today.
(SOUNDBITE OF MONTAGE)
PRIME MINISTER MARK CARNEY: This is Canada, and we decide what happens here. Let's choose to be united and strong, Canada strong.
PIERRE POILIEVRE: My friends, let us vote to bring home the country we know, the country we love, Canada. Let's bring it home.
DETROW: That's the two main candidates there, Prime Minister Mark Carney who heads the Liberals and Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre. The election is seen as one of the most consequential in Canada in decades, issues at stake include protecting the country's sovereignty from the United States. The race has also been one of high political drama, with a stunning turnaround of fortunes by one of the parties. NPR international affairs correspondent Jackie Northam has been following developments and joins us now. Hey, Jackie.
JACKIE NORTHAM, BYLINE: Hi, Scott.
DETROW: First of all, let's - give us a rundown on who exactly is running for prime minister and what the race looks like.
NORTHAM: Well, there are four main political parties, the Conservatives, the Liberals, the left-leaning New Democratic Party, or NDP, and the Bloc Quebecois out of Quebec. But Scott, really, it comes down to two men, who you mentioned, Pierre Poilievre, a 45-year-old career politician and leader of the Conservatives, and 60-year-old Mark Carney, who's the current prime minister.
Now, if this election had been held earlier this year - say, January - Poilievre and the Conservatives most likely would have won by a landslide. At one point, they were 27 points ahead in the polls. People were fed up with the Liberals then under then-Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, and it looked like the Liberal Party was, you know, headed for the political dustbin. But not now - the Liberals have rebounded and are poised to win tomorrow's election.
DETROW: I mean, that is a remarkable swing in points, even given dramatic external events. But walk us through what exactly happened here and how the Liberals turn this around so much.
NORTHAM: Well, two things happened. Justin Trudeau resigned, so he was not going to run again. And President Trump started targeting Canada, calling it the 51st state and threatening its sovereignty. And Trump also placed steep tariffs on Canada, which were seen there as wholly unjustified and could tip Canada into a recession. You know, Scott, all of these moves outraged Canadians - you know, a really deep sense of betrayal. While all this was unfolding, Mark Carney replaced Trudeau as prime minister and then called for elections. And Carney has spent most of his life in the financial world. He was head of the Bank of England, the Bank of Canada at critical moments. And given that and his demeanor - you know, steady hand on the tiller - it's appealing to voters at this time. We spoke with one, 36-year-old Derek Pine (ph), who said he's deeply concerned about a recession and what Trump is going to do in the future. Here he is.
DEREK PINE: We're nervous. Carney seems like he's got some experience in that space, like he knows what he's doing, and it gives us our best chance to kind of get through whatever's ahead.
NORTHAM: You know, Scott, given the poll numbers, with the Liberals surging ahead now, it's clear other voters feel the same way as Pine.
DETROW: So with Trump as so much of a mix in the election, can you help us understand how that adversely affected Poilievre?
NORTHAM: Right. Once Trump started taunting and threatening Canada, voters and analysts began taking a closer look at Poilievre. His rhetoric and policies were seen as being similar to Trump - Canada first, immigration is bad, deep cuts to federal programs. And people started calling him Trump Light or Maple MAGA.
DETROW: (Laughter).
NORTHAM: And that association - yeah - that association with Trump has hurt him badly. Poilievre has fought to distance himself from Trump and has reworked his campaign - you know, that he'll be tough on the president. But, you know, his message about fixing the economy and immigration and that, which may have resonated a few months ago, but really, now, Trump is a key issue.
DETROW: Jackie, I do want to turn to one other storyline in Canada that a lot of listeners have heard about. At least 11 people are dead, more than 20 wounded after a vehicle plowed into a crowd at a Filipino festival in Vancouver late Saturday night. Now, police have ruled out terrorism, but I'm wondering, has there been any reaction from the political leaders about these attacks?
NORTHAM: Carney canceled a couple of large rallies, and he is due to end his day in Vancouver before heading back to Ottawa. Poilievre didn't cancel any rallies, but he went to a Filipino community church in Ontario. And the head of the NDP, Jagmeet Singh, held a very emotional press conference. He was at the Vancouver rally meeting with people, and he left just minutes before the attack happened.
DETROW: That is NPR's Jackie Northam. Thank you so much.
NORTHAM: Thanks, Scott. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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