LEILA FADEL, HOST:
The Kremlin says a call this week between President Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin is ushering in a new world order. During that call, Putin did not accept a U.S. offer for a full 30-day ceasefire in Ukraine, but the White House described a partial agreement to stop attacks on energy infrastructure as progress in a movement to peace. Among the countries watching Washington's new overtures toward Moscow is Iran. Russia and Iran are partners on many geopolitical issues, including the war in Ukraine, where Russia has launched scores of Iranian drones on Ukrainian cities. So how might a warming of U.S.-Russian relations affect Tehran? To discuss this, we're joined by Karim Sadjadpour. He is a senior fellow in the Middle East Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
Good morning, and thank you for being on the program.
KARIM SADJADPOUR: Great to be with you, Leila.
FADEL: So you've written extensively about what you call the Russia-Iran partnership of defiance. Could the U.S. now getting closer with Russia serve to pull that bond apart?
KARIM SADJADPOUR: I'm skeptical of that, Leila, because I think, at the end of the day, over the last decade, Iran and Russia have been kind of, like, the Bonnie and Clyde of global geopolitics. They've been bound together by this common opposition to the United States and the U.S.-led world order, and that fundamentally hasn't changed. Both Vladimir Putin and Iran's leadership maintain that opposition to the U.S.-led world order. What has changed is the United States' position.
FADEL: Right.
KARIM SADJADPOUR: But, you know, ultimately, I think Russia is going to continue to pursue its own interests - extracting concessions from the United States - but to continue to maintain a strategic relationship with Iran.
FADEL: What does Iran gain or lose as the Trump administration really shows more openness to Moscow?
KARIM SADJADPOUR: What Iranian leaders fear is that Russia could throw them under the bus in the context of a Russia-United States rapprochement. And, you know, Iran is a country which is deeply isolated, one of the most sanctioned countries in the world. And in a way, Russia benefits from an isolated Iran, because an isolated Iran is far more dependent on Russian technology, Russian strategic support. So I think Moscow's endgame is, in some ways, the status quo. They benefit from an unstable Middle East in which the free flow of oil is disrupted and the risk premium of energy prices are higher. They benefit from Iran, which is isolated and dependent on them. But at times, they will pretend to be helpful to the United States in checking Iran's nuclear ambitions, which is also, I would argue, a Russian priority. They, at the same time, don't want Iran to have a nuclear weapon.
FADEL: Now, do you think, though, that the U.S. could depend on Russia to really be a reliable partner in countering Iran's power in the region?
KARIM SADJADPOUR: I don't think so. I think fundamentally, the U.S. national interest vis-a-vis Iran is very different than the Russian national interest. Ultimately, the United States wants to see a Middle East which is stable; its partners and allies, like the United - like Israel and Gulf countries feel protected; there's a free flow of energy from the region. Those aren't strong Russian priorities. So again, I think, at times, Putin will continue to play both sides. He'll pretend to be helpful to the United States. He'll pretend to be helpful to Iran. But ultimately, you know, he has his own interests, which are very different than that of the United States.
FADEL: And the United States - the Trump administration's approach to Iran itself. You know, early on in the administration, we heard them talking about opening talks again with Iran. This week, though, we're hearing President Trump say that Iran will pay dire consequences over Houthi attacks, which Iran backs. I mean, what is the Trump administration's approach to Iran?
KARIM SADJADPOUR: I think President Trump has a very narrow approach toward Iran which is almost exclusively focused on reversing Iran's nuclear program. And he has apparently a great sense of urgency to do that. He reportedly has sent, in a letter to Iran, that they have essentially two months to freeze their nuclear program. And his strategy is to subject Iran to enormous economic pressure, sanctions, coercion and a military threat in order for Iran to compromise. And, you know, this is - the U.S.-Iran Cold War has now persisted for 46 years, and it's very unlikely that it's going to be resolved in a couple months.
FADEL: Karim Sadjadpour at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Thank you so much.
KARIM SADJADPOUR: Thank you, Leila. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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