MARY LOUISE KELLY, HOST:
Here's what we know. Ukraine has agreed to a 30-day ceasefire in its war with Russia. This would mark the first such pause after more than three years of full-scale fighting. Now, what we don't yet know is how Russia may respond to the proposal, which is being brokered by the Trump administration. For more, we are joined by NPR's Greg Myre, who has covered the war extensively. Hi, Greg.
GREG MYRE, BYLINE: Hi, Mary Louise.
KELLY: OK, so I want to start with Russia's perspective, since we're waiting on their response here. What are the pros and cons from Russia's point of view of this one-month ceasefire?
MYRE: Well, the downside is that Russia has been advancing on the battlefield, and this could halt its momentum if the fighting suddenly stops and gives Ukraine some time to regroup. So far, the Kremlin has said only that it's studying the proposal. There's no real sign, though, of enthusiasm for it. And Russian military bloggers - they only speak for themselves, but they have these huge followings, and they tend to reflect the mood of the National Security Establishment. Many are calling the ceasefire a trap and say it should be rejected by Russia.
KELLY: OK, that would seem to be the downside. What's the possible upside for Russia?
MYRE: Well, the Russians have been very pleased with comments by President Trump in recent weeks, saying his worldview seems to align largely with Russia's. So even if Russian leader Vladimir Putin doesn't like the ceasefire, he may be looking at the bigger picture, at the long game, and doesn't want to risk antagonizing Trump by rejecting the truce. I spoke about this with Dmitri Alperovitch, a prominent commentator on the war who runs the Washington think tank the Silverado Policy Accelerator.
DMITRI ALPEROVITCH: Putin is in a little bit of a bind. I think it will be hard for him to reject this outright because he doesn't want to get Trump to be mad at him and to start cracking down even further. So I think he'll try to weaken it. I think a permanent deal is still unlikely, but he may have to accept a 30-day ceasefire.
KELLY: Greg Myre, the backdrop, of course, is it was - what? - less than two weeks ago that we had that dramatic confrontation in the White House between President Trump, Vice President Vance and Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the President of Ukraine. Are we seeing now maybe the pendulum swinging a little bit the other way, ramping up pressure on Russia?
MYRE: Yeah, possibly. One certainty about Trump is that he's unpredictable. His recent remarks on Russia prompted all this commentary that decades of U.S. foreign policy were being reversed, now with a sympathetic view toward Russia. Yet the past couple days have looked more familiar. The U.S. says - and Ukraine say they're in sync on the ceasefire plan. Zelenskyy called it positive. Trump said just today that the next move is up to Russia. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said he hoped a truce could start within days, and if Russia said no, that would be highly unfortunate. So what's next? Well, here's Alperovitch again.
ALPEROVITCH: There's nothing permanent about the current situation. The relationship with Ukraine may still deteriorate. The relationship with Russia can be on the upswing once again, or it can go back. So the unpredictability of this administration is something that unnerves both allies and enemies alike.
KELLY: Greg, I want to close with a big-picture question. If we get a one-month ceasefire, if Russia agrees, chances that that would lead to a broader agreement, an actual end to this war?
MYRE: Mary Louise, that's still a long way off. Both sides have said previously, they aren't really interested in temporary ceasefires. They want lasting agreements. But their aims are fundamentally at odds. Ukraine wants security guarantees from the West so it won't be attacked by Russia again, but the Trump administration says that's a job for Europe, not the U.S. Russia wants to keep nearly 20% of Ukraine that it's captured and the rest to be a buffer zone. There's no clear way to bridge these divides.
KELLY: NPR's Greg Myre. Thanks.
MYRE: Sure thing, Mary Louise. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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