A MARTÍNEZ, HOST:
Investigators say the U.S. Army veteran from Texas who drove into a crowd in New Orleans last week pledged allegiance to the Islamic State group. ISIS fighters are scattered and its operations are decentralized, and yet the group has ramped up attacks in Syria and Iraq and taken advantage of regional instability in Africa. So is ISIS resurging, or are the group's tactics just evolving? Aaron David Miller is senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and the State Department's former deputy Middle East coordinator. Aaron, so, I mean, how do you assess the current state of ISIS right now?
AARON DAVID MILLER: You know, I think five years after the last piece of the ISIS caliphate - which at one time controlled more than 10 million people in Iraq and Syria - were stripped away by coalition forces, I guess I'd describe the situation as ISIS being down but not out. As you suggested, ISIS continues to exert significant influence in various places - Afghanistan, through ISIS–K, ISIS Khorasan. You pointed out sub-Saharan Africa, particularly in the wake of these coups in Mali and Burkina Faso and Niger. ISIS feeds on instability and weak governance and also on government repression. And in Syria, I think without a doubt there's been a resurgence.
If you ask me, do I think ISIS constitutes right now an imminent or immediate threat to the homeland? - I don't. But I think their tactics have changed in some respects to a much more difficult sort of approach to killing, and that is ISIS attacks through inspiration. That's what appears to have happened. We don't know much about Jabbar's relationship with ISIS online. We may learn more. But it's the digital caliphate, as some people describe it, that may provoke the real challenge for American officials.
MARTÍNEZ: I'm wondering - Aaron, considering that last week's attack was at least inspired by ISIS, why do you think ISIS has not at least claimed some responsibility for it?
MILLER: You know, they don't always, particularly for attacks that are inspired. They may still. So I don't think I have a really good answer to that. I mean, you would like to think that the Islamic State understands the downside, the consequences of actually killing Americans or being associated with operations that do that. I mean, in the last two weeks, the U.S. launched intense strikes against ISIS targets in central Syria. But hard to imagine, frankly, if they are in any way associated with that attack on the homeland that took - that created - killed Americans, that they wouldn't, at some point, want to associate themselves with it.
MARTÍNEZ: You mentioned that ISIS thrives on instability. And considering what's going on in Syria right now, are they ripe for being maybe a place where ISIS can move in?
MILLER: You know, the good news, I think, is that the Assad regime is gone. But the Assad regime did, in fact, create something of a constraint on ISIS activities. Now it varies (ph) in central Syria, which are controlled by no one. The real test, I think, here is whether or not the new Syrian government can figure out a way to create a functional, inclusive government that includes minorities and women to eliminate the notion that they are going to repress. That would be, frankly, in the end - in addition to good counterterrorism strategies by that government aided by their supporters - would probably be the best way to contain this group.
MARTÍNEZ: What might change when Donald Trump is inaugurated in terms of how the U.S. tries to contain ISIS worldwide?
MILLER: You know, it's really hard to say because it really depends on what the president-elect's policies on Syria are going to be. Is he going to deploy the - redeploy the 2,000 American forces, which do play a role? Is he going to stop support for the Syrian Democratic Forces, which monitor and maintain the administration of at least 12 prisons in which you've got an estimated 10,000 ISIS fighters still in captivity? And I think both of those things would be a mistake. Will he impose a Muslim ban, which is going to be a red flag, as he did in Trump 1.0? I think we don't have to own Syria. But we do, in fact, have to take some responsibility for trying to keep it stable and pursue effective counterterrorism. And I'm hopeful that he will.
MARTÍNEZ: Aaron David Miller is senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Aaron, thank you.
MILLER: Thanks so much, A. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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