AILSA CHANG, HOST:
One of the big questions facing the Trump administration is what to do about the war in Ukraine. The president-elect has said that he could end the war in one day, but that's unlikely. Russian President Vladimir Putin does not seem willing to back down, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy faces a tough choice - continue fighting, possibly with less support from the West, or negotiate an end to a war that would likely hand over land to Russia. Well, Michael McFaul has one possible solution. He's a former U.S. ambassador to Russia, and he recently wrote a piece in Foreign Affairs magazine called "How Trump Can End The War In Ukraine." He spoke about it with NPR's Andrew Limbong.
ANDREW LIMBONG, BYLINE: Your basic argument is this. President Trump could help negotiate a deal in which Russia maintains control of the areas it now currently occupies. And Ukraine, in return, gets NATO membership. Walk us through how you landed on that.
MICHAEL MCFAUL: Well, first of all, I say this out of tragedy, not out of any enthusiasm, but it's just a realistic assessment of the situation on the battlefield. President Zelenskyy, a few weeks ago, hinted himself that he would be ready for negotiations along the lines that I implied, which is to say - and that was a first, by the way, where he said, we are prepared to reunify our country only through diplomatic means, and that means allowing that territory occupied by Russia to be occupied for a while. But in return, he has to get something back. This just can't be a capitulation. This just can't be give Putin everything he wants. And I think the way for permanent and enduring peace is, once he does that, the NATO alliance brings Ukraine into NATO.
LIMBONG: Tell me more about Ukraine's membership into NATO - part of this puzzle here. Why is that so important to this deal that you propose?
MCFAUL: NATO membership offers real security. The Soviet Union never attacked a NATO country. Russia has never attacked a NATO country. By the way, NATO has never attacked Russia or the Soviet Union, so that should be reassuring to the Russians. And that's why I think NATO membership guarantees that there will be enduring peace - and not just peace for a couple of more years followed by another invasion down the road by Russia.
LIMBONG: Would giving Vladimir Putin control over land that he seized set a bad precedent - right? Like, what would stop him from invading yet another country to reach a similar deal to what you're proposing?
MCFAUL: I agree. I think it's a really bad precedent. It's a very tragic one. And unlike, say, the division of West Germany and East Germany, I tragically predict that he will Russify those territories that he's occupying so that, you know, over time, they will feel like they're part of Russia and not a separate country like East Germany was. So I think it's a really dangerous precedent. I just think my proposal is better than all the alternatives.
LIMBONG: What about President Zelenskyy? You write in your piece that a majority of the Ukrainians still believe the country can win the war. Why should he support a plan that would give over land to Russia - especially if, you know, his people, the public, thinks that they can win?
MCFAUL: This would be the most difficult decision of his time as president. It will be unpopular. It'll be especially unpopular within the military ranks - people that are fighting not just for independence and not just for Ukraine, but fighting to avenge their sisters and brothers that were killed by these Russians. And they won't like this deal. And that's why, you know, if you're serious about ending the war - and I'm going to take him at his word that President-elect Trump is serious about the war - you have to give something to the Ukrainian people for the sacrifice that they will be enduring. A deal has to be compromise on all sides. I actually was just reading "The Art Of The Deal" earlier this morning by Mr. Trump, and he talks about that. It can't just be capitulation to Putin.
LIMBONG: We started this conversation with you saying you're proposing this deal in tragedy - I think those are your words - or in...
MCFAUL: Sorrow.
LIMBONG: In sorrow.
MCFAUL: Horrible,
LIMBONG: In sorrow, yeah.
MCFAUL: Yeah, I hate - I had a hard time publishing this piece because I don't...
LIMBONG: Yeah.
MCFAUL: ...Like it.
LIMBONG: When did reality sort of settle in for you? When did you think, like, OK - you know, you've been very public supporting Ukraine throughout, you know, this war. When did you realize it was time for a deal such as this?
MCFAUL: Well, I talk to Ukrainians every single day - those that travel to the battlefield, the front line, those that are fighting, senior government officials. And I think, over the last several months, it's a reality inside Ukraine - it's not my reality - that the cost of trying to go fight all the way to the 1991 borders is going to be heavy.
And then No. 2, the event was the reelection of Donald Trump and that, in Kyiv and in other parts of Ukraine, a sense, you know, has been building that they're not going to be able to rely on the United States for years and years.
CHANG: That was former U.S. ambassador to Russia, Michael McFaul, speaking with NPR's Andrew Limbong. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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