LEILA FADEL, HOST:
The morning-after reviews of the 2024 votes are clear - the Democratic Party is losing ground among blue-collar workers.
STEVE INSKEEP, HOST:
Exit polls, which are not that reliable, but it's what we have - exit polls show President-elect Trump drew support from voters without a college degree and those who make less than $100,000 per year. Here's independent Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont, who caucuses with the Democrats, speaking on NBC's "Meet The Press" on Sunday.
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BERNIE SANDERS: If you're an average working person out there, do you really think that the Democratic Party is going to the mats, taking on powerful special interests and fighting for you? I think the overwhelming answer is no, and that is what has got to change.
FADEL: Paul Clark, a labor and employment relations professor at Penn State University, has been following how working-class people vote for years. He spoke with our colleague Michel Martin, and says the trend of blue-collar workers voting Republican instead of Democrat started in the early 2000s.
PAUL CLARK: It predates Trump, but I think Trump really tapped into it and accelerated the transition. I think the economic issues are certainly part of it. These workers feel like they've been left behind. Globalization has benefited many groups, but not them. There's a certain resentment and anger, and I think Trump has tapped into that. I also think that he's touched on some changes in terms of working-class voters prioritizing social and cultural issues - DEI and racial issues, the number of immigrants coming into many working-class communities, transgenderism, guns, abortion. Trump has really become a part of working-class culture in this country.
MICHEL MARTIN, HOST:
How do you know that?
CLARK: You can look at the data in terms of - by income that defines working-class voters. In the 2008 election, Obama got 63% of voters making less than $50,000, and McCain got 35%. That's a 28% margin. In 2012, Obama got 60%. It fell to a 22% margin. In 2024, Harris got 48.5% and Trump 49%, meaning that between 2008 and 2024, the Democrats lost almost 30% of working-class voters. And that's enough to explain the outcomes of the election by itself.
MARTIN: And that's voters making less than $50,000 a year?
CLARK: Yes.
MARTIN: OK.
CLARK: You also see something similar with $50,000-100,000. It's not as dramatic, but Democrats went from having a majority of those voters in 2008 to, in 2024, Trump having a majority of those voters.
MARTIN: So let me just go back a little bit to the economic questions. Trump's record in his first administration was business-friendly. That's not a secret. I mean, his Supreme Court nominees were very focused on, say, curbing the power of regulatory agencies, for example. He promises more of the same. He's talked about tax cuts, which advantage higher earners, although he does say he's going to eliminate taxes on tipped wages. Is that message not getting through? Or do these Trump supporters just not care so much about that, as long as they feel that he's handling their business?
CLARK: Well, I think there's been a little amnesia or looking back at the Trump economy as being rosier than it is. The economy has changed, and people are dealing with inflation. But the fact that Trump is speaking to them is seeming to connect with them, that he's listening and he's going to do something for them in terms of the economy. I think that's had an impact. But I also think behind that are the social and cultural issues.
MARTIN: Before we let you go, we started our conversation talking about where the Democrats fell short. And you identify the fact that this has been a long-term trend of Republicans having more appeal to voters without college degrees, with voters who make less income. Obviously, it's not your job to advise the Democrats, but if you were, what should they be thinking about?
CLARK: I think as the Democrats go forward, they have to think about candidates who have a closer connection to working-class voters. I'm not sure that that was a strong suit of Harris. And if they want to reclaim those voters, they're going to need someone who's more like a Joe Biden, who connected very well with those groups of workers. He could sit down and talk to them. They felt that he understood them.
MARTIN: That is Paul Clark. He's a professor of labor and employment relations at Penn State University. Professor Clark, thanks so much for talking with us.
CLARK: Yeah, my pleasure. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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