MICHEL MARTIN, HOST:
China, whose government congratulated Trump late yesterday, said it respects the choice of the American people. That choice will have strong reverberations in a country that Trump says has ripped off America, even though it is led by a strongman whom he openly admires. NPR's John Ruwitch has the story.
JOHN RUWITCH, BYLINE: During his first term, Trump steered U.S. policy toward China in a decidedly confrontational direction. He blamed China for the erosion of American industry and launched a trade war with tariffs on hundreds of billions of dollars' worth of Chinese imports. This time, he's promised to raise the stakes with tariffs of 60% or more on everything coming from China.
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RUWITCH: But at a factory in southern China's Guangdong Province that makes light fixtures, mostly for exports to the U.S., owner James Cheng is not worried. He's got a workshop in Bangkok, Thailand, which he opened in 2019 after Trump's first round of tariffs.
JAMES CHENG: (Speaking Mandarin).
RUWITCH: He says steep new tariffs would just push him to increase his investment in Thailand, then shift more production there.
CHENG: (Speaking Mandarin).
RUWITCH: It doesn't matter to him if he makes his light fixtures in China or Southeast Asia. "At the end of the day," he says, "it's American consumers who'll pick up the tab." That tracks with what many economists say about Trump's tariff proposal, and that's why Cheng thinks Trump may not follow through.
For the Chinese government, though, the possibility of fresh trade friction is a big concern at a time when the economy is struggling to find its feet. The foreign ministry has declined to comment on possible new tariffs. But Jude Blanchette, a China expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, says Beijing has been quietly making its position clear through various channels.
JUDE BLANCHETTE: You know it's official signaling when you are hearing literally the same set of talking points from every group you meet with.
RUWITCH: China may not react proportionally and in kind to new U.S. tariffs, which is what it did during the first Trump administration. This time, scholars and others are signaling that Beijing may be more aggressive by doing things like devaluing the currency to offset tariffs or retaliating against U.S. businesses and allies.
BLANCHETTE: And of course, Beijing has mapped out all the congressional districts. They know exactly what industries are where. So if they need to target specific members of Congress, they will do that.
RUWITCH: Other risks lurk beyond trade in the U.S.-China relationship, a big one being Taiwan, the self-governed island that Beijing claims as its own. China wants to annex Taiwan and has ramped up its threats. Trump has given mixed signals about defending it. Some here in China hope that Trump 2.0 will be Donald Trump, the pragmatist, the dealmaker.
WANG HUIYAO: We had already two U.S. administrations bashing China, containing China. China's still there. It's still very resilient.
RUWITCH: Wang Huiyao is president of the government-sanctioned Center for China and Globalization, a think tank in Beijing.
WANG: So we have to sit down and find a way to work with each other.
RUWITCH: That may be wishful thinking. Trump is unpredictable. During the first administration, China policy started out transactional and focused on trade, but Trump's more hawkish advisers bent his ear. And they may well do so this time, too.
John Ruwitch, NPR News, Shanghai. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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