Republicans are favored to take control of the chamber because the 2024 make up of races tilted disproportionately in the GOP’s favor: Democrats are defending seven seats in conservative or swing states and targeting just two in the safe Republican states of Texas and Florida.
Democrats right now narrowly control the Senate 51-49. Early Tuesday evening, West Virginia Republican Gov. Jim Justice flipped the open seat left by retiring Sen. Joe Manchin, a Democrat who switched to independent this year.
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The top two Democratic targets for defeat are incumbent Sens. Jon Tester of Montana and Sherrod Brown of Ohio — two campaign-hardened senators in red states, but also candidates who have never appeared on a ballot with Donald Trump. A victory in either would tip the scales to a narrow GOP majority in the next Congress. Tester has trailed in polls all year long.
Democrats are resetting their hopes on a theory that voters in these red states will vote for Trump and then cross party lines to support the Democratic senators. It’s a risky bet: 68 of the 69 Senate races in the 2016 and 2020 elections mirrored the presidential result in their state. The lone exception was GOP Sen. Susan Collins of Maine in 2020.
There are also competitive Senate races in the “blue wall” states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin where Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris have been statistically tied.
Here's more on the top races to watch.
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