Republicans are favored to flip the Senate. Here are key races to watch

By Susan Davis,

Deirdre Walsh, Claudia Grisales, Barbara Sprunt

Published November 5, 2024 at 9:25 PM EST

The exterior of the U.S. Capitol building is seen at sunrise on Feb. 8, 2021, in Washington, D.C.

Republicans are favored to take control of the Senate next year thanks to a 2024 election map that has Democrats defending seven seats in conservative or swing states and on offense for just two in the safe Republican states of Texas and Florida.

Democrats narrowly control the Senate 51-49 today, but have already lost an open seat in West Virginia, according to the AP.

Here are the races to watch:

Arizona: Democratic Congressman Ruben Gallego has consistently polled ahead of Republican Kari Lake in the closing weeks of the election. Gallego has performed particularly well among Latino voters, who have a large, and growing, influence in the state.

Nevada: Incumbent Democratic Sen. Jacky Rosen appeared poised to win the race early this election cycle, but in the final two weeks, the Senate Leadership Fund directed more than $6 million to the state in a “Hail Mary” effort to boost Republican challenger Sam Brown.

Michigan: The race was consistently tied through the final weeks of the election as Republican Mike Rogers and Democrat Elissa Slotkin campaigned to replace Sen. Debbie Stabenow, who is retiring. As part of the so-called “blue wall,” Michigan was closely contested by both Harris and Trump.

Montana: Montana has long been considered one of the best opportunities for Republicans to make gains in the Senate. Incumbent Democratic Sen. Jon Tester is facing Republican Tim Sheehy in a state that has grown increasingly conservative in recent years.

Ohio: Incumbent Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown is facing Republican Bernie Moreno in this critical state. The race for the Ohio Senate seat was essentially a dead heat ahead of the election and widely considered to be one of the tightest of toss-up races in the country.

Wisconsin: Sen. Tammy Baldwin, the incumbent Democrat, is facing Republican Eric Hovde in one of the most evenly politically divided states in the country. Baldwin, the first openly gay person elected to the Senate in 2012, keeps a low profile in Washington but was comfortably re-elected back home in 2018. However, she has never faced a candidate as well-funded as Hovde in her prior campaigns.

Pennsylvania: Sen. Bob Casey, the incumbent Democrat, is running against Republican David McCormick in one of the more negative and personal Senate races of the cycle. Pennsylvania — seen as a must-win state for both presidential candidates — has seen staggering sums of political advertising flood its airwaves.