Both former President Donald Trump and Vice President Harris have multiple paths to 270, the number of electoral votes needed to win the presidency.
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But if both candidates win everywhere they are favored, two things are true about what they have to do to divvy up the seven toss-up states of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania in the so-called "Blue Wall" and Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona and Nevada in the Sun Belt:
- There’s no path for Trump without winning one of the Blue Wall states.
- There’s no path for Harris without winning one of Pennsylvania, North Carolina or Georgia.
The math simply doesn’t add up if one of those two things don’t happen.
So what’s most likely?
Harris Sweeps the Blue Wall: The easiest path for Harris is to win those three states that, aside from 2016, have sided with Democrats for decades. They have voted together in every election since 1992. Harris winning all three (and winning the one Omaha-area congressional district in Nebraska) would put Harris right at 270.
Blue Wall Chip and Replace: If the Blue Wall breaks, Harris could replace one of the bricks with a Sun Belt state (or two). Harris could swap, for example, Wisconsin for North Carolina, Georgia or Arizona. Pennsylvania creates a bigger problem because its 19 electoral votes are the most of the seven toss-ups. If Harris loses Pennsylvania, she’d have to replace it with at least two Sun Belt states.
Trump’s Eastern Sweep: If Trump wins Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Georgia, he would be right at 270 without needing any of the other toss-up states. The intersection between Harris’ and Trump’s paths are Pennsylvania, which is why both candidates and groups supporting them have spent $600 million on ads in Pennsylvania in this campaign.
Build the (Red) Wall: Trump won Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania in 2016. If he swept them again, he would need just one Sun Belt state, and he would be over 270.
➡️ See the maps of the possible paths here.
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