40%
The percentage of white voters that Democrats generally need to win in presidential elections. Because of demographic changes and Latinos and Asian Americans siding heavily with Democrats, Obama was the first person to win the presidency with less than 40% in 2012 (39%), according to exit polls. Hillary Clinton got 37%, though, in 2016 and lost. Biden won 41% of white voters and won the presidency.
60%
Democrats win when young voters turn out, and they win them by a big margin. In 2008, 2012 and 2016, they won 60% of voters 18-29 and won. In 2000, 2004 and 2016, they didn’t and lost.
53%
Women have been a majority of the electorate in every presidential election since 1984. The gender gap could be the widest in history, but Democrats would love to see women make up at least 53% of the electorate and win 57% of them. Biden won 57% of women in 2020, the highest percentage for a Democrat in modern politics. They were 52% of the electorate. They were 52% in 2016 also, but Hillary Clinton only got 54% of women — and lost men by a lot. Obama won twice, though, and both times women were 53%, and he won at least 55% of them.
61%
Trump turned out more rural voters in 2020 than 2016 (19% vs. 17%). But he won them by less in 2020 – 57% compared to 61%. Trump would love to get back to that level, as his campaign has focused on his base voters.
67%+
Similarly, Trump’s base is largely white voters without college degrees. He was able to win them by a wider margin in 2020, but it wasn’t quite enough. He got 67% of them in 2020 and they were 35% of the electorate. Unless he can substantially peel off Latinos, young voters or Black voters, Trump will need to exceed 67% with the group.
👀 For more numbers, here are 10 demographic groups to watch.
Copyright 2024 NPR
