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Polls say the presidential race is a coin flip, but former President Donald Trump's supporters in key swing states are expressing cautious optimism. Republican pollsters say that Trump is in a better position in the polls than most every other Republican presidential candidate over the last two decades. NPR White House correspondent Franco Ordoñez hit the campaign trail and brings back this pulse check.
UNIDENTIFIED PERSON #1: Is that a Trump bear?
FRANCO ORDOÑEZ, BYLINE: Brandon Alison and his young daughters, Saylor and Evie, made a quick stop at a merchandise tent before heading to hear former President Donald Trump speak at a nearby church in Zebulon, Georgia. Saylor is a little shy, but Evie jumps at the chance to show me all the knickknacks on the tables.
EVIE: This is Trump slippers. This is Trump horns, whatever. These are Trump bobbly-head things.
ORDOÑEZ: Alison, who works in real estate, has been watching the presidential polls closely. He sees how tight they are but is still confident that Trump will prevail.
BRANDON ALISON: I don't think it's as close as they think it is. I just think the polls are skewed more towards the other party, but I think there's more supporters that are going to come out at the end of the day. I guess it's called the silent majority, and the silent majority is the people who just stand on the sidelines, but they'll show up for the polls. Yes, sir.
ORDOÑEZ: Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are in a statistical tie, with two weeks to go in the race. But Trump supporters, like Alison, have a little more reason to feel optimistic. Democrats usually have a slight edge at this point in recent elections. And not only is Trump polling better than he did in 2020 and 2016; he's also in a better position than some past Republican nominees, such as former Senator John McCain in 2008.
ALEX CONANT: We're used to playing from behind.
ORDOÑEZ: That's Alex Conant, a Republican strategist who helped lead Senator Marco Rubio's presidential campaign in 2016. Because they often feel like underdogs, Republicans often project even more confidence going into an election. This time, with the polls so close, it gives the idea that they can actually win this even more weight. Now, a lot can happen. Harris could outperform her own polling. Conant mentioned the, quote, "quiet Harris voters" out there, meaning Republicans who will support Harris, but are not going to put up a sign in their yard.
CONANT: Look, I think it's a 50-50 election. I think it's a true coin flip. There's no guarantee that Trump's going to win. But the Republicans I talked to are more optimistic about this election than any election in 20 years.
ORDOÑEZ: Conant says there's also big concerns about Trump outsourcing much of his door-knocking operation. Sandy Moyer is the chairwoman of the Republican National Hispanic Assembly of North Carolina. Despite the positive headwinds, she's not taking anything for granted.
SANDY MOYER: I would say there's a cautious optimism.
ORDOÑEZ: She and I met at a Latino roundtable outside Miami. She feels good about the polls and early voting in her home state of North Carolina, but she's seen this storyline play out before.
MOYER: I think because of what has happened in the previous years - you know, there have been previous times of, like, a red wave is coming, and then all of a sudden, a red wave didn't come. So yes, this is great news, but we still got to make sure that we're doing the work up until Election Day.
ORDOÑEZ: In Las Vegas, supporters lined up for hours before Trump was scheduled to speak on Thursday.
UNIDENTIFIED PERSON #2: How are we doing, sir?
UNIDENTIFIED PERSON #3: Good. How are you?
UNIDENTIFIED PERSON #2: I'm having MAGA kind day.
ORDOÑEZ: Julie Tillar, a retired acupuncturist is not concerned about the race. She and I catch up while she's waiting in line with her brother, Jeff, a former county appraiser.
JULIE TILLAR: And I'm excited. I know he's going to win, and I'm just - for us, it's, like, a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to see him in person.
JEFF TILLAR: Yeah, no doubt in my mind that he will win.
ORDOÑEZ: But a few rows over, 19-year-old Nathan Wilburn is a bit more circumspect. He sees the fight that Democrats are putting up.
NATHAN WILBURN: I don't think anything's really easy, but I think he's got a good chance.
ORDOÑEZ: This will be Wilburn's first election. He just hopes that Trump can finish strong.
UNIDENTIFIED PERSON #4: If they haven't told you yet, if don't have a Trump hat, you ain't getting in. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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