A MARTÍNEZ, HOST:
California is not a swing state, and so it's largely left out of the presidential contest.
LEILA FADEL, HOST:
Right. But this year, control of the House of Representatives could be determined by the deeply blue state. About five House seats are considered among the closest in the country and could go either way.
MARTÍNEZ: Guy Marzorati from member station KQED has been following these elections in California. So Guy, all five of the California races that are considered toss-ups by Cook Political Report are held by Republicans. So how are they able to compete and keep these races very tight in a state that's bluer than Frank Sinatra's eyes?
GUY MARZORATI, BYLINE: (Laughter) Right. Well, I think in many cases, it's Republicans here kind of succeeding in spite of Trump. You mentioned those five toss-up seats. Voters in four of those five districts actually voted for Joe Biden in 2020, some by pretty wide margin. So, yeah, how are Republicans surviving? I think some of it has to do with the candidates, right? These kind of GOP incumbents have established their own political identities apart from Trump. But the voters here are unique, too. I talked to University of California, Irvine dean Jon Gould. He does a lot of polling on those swing district voters in Orange County, including a lot of Republicans.
JON GOULD: Who at a congressional level think Republican but at a presidential level are put off by Trump and the election denialism and January 6 and some of the social issues that they don't agree with him or the party on, particularly on abortion.
MARZORATI: I just will say, A, that this kind of ticket splitting - you know, voting for a Democrat for president, voting for a Republican for Congress - it's getting more and more rare nationally. And I think the big question here for the GOP is, can they just keep it up in 2024?
MARTÍNEZ: All right. So tell us about the districts that Republicans are trying to defend.
MARZORATI: Yeah, I'll start with the Central Valley, California's big agricultural region. There you have these two Republican incumbents - John Duarte, David Valadao - who are both actually facing rematches from 2022. There's a district near Merced, where Duarte's facing former Assemblyman Adam Gray. That race was just about decided by 500 votes in 2022. And we have seen since Duarte's taken office, he's kind of followed this long tradition of Central Valley Republicans who have broken with their party on immigration. He's actually voted against tougher restrictions.
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JOHN DUARTE: If a family's been here five years, 10 years - working hard, showing up to work, not breaking the law - I want to give them full access to the American dream. And I simply disagree with certain members of my party on this.
MARZORATI: And meanwhile, down in Bakersfield, you have David Valadao. He's one of the only Republicans to vote to impeach Trump after January 6. He's getting another challenge from Democrat Rudy Salas. And I think, big picture, what you're seeing in these Central Valley elections is a lot of focus on the cost of living - ads on gas prices, on food prices, drug prices. These are the issues the candidates are battling over.
MARTÍNEZ: All right. Let's keep heading south through California, a bit closer to me here in Southern California. How are the campaigns shaping up here? I'd imagine that they were in Orange County.
MARZORATI: That's right. Orange County continues to be the biggest battleground. It used to be a Republican stronghold. It's moved left, and really what we've seen here is Democrats benefiting from this idea of the diploma divide - right? - voters with college degrees moving towards the Democratic Party. And as a result, I think you see the issues campaigns debating over here are less about pocketbook issues than in the Central Valley. You have Democrats like Dave Min. He's running to succeed Katie Porter. He's really running a campaign focused on fiscally moderate but really socially liberal voters.
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DAVE MIN: I've been strong on women's reproductive rights, on gun safety, on climate. And you'll note that the Republican Party is not attacking me on those issues - right? - because they're popular issues. I think I reflect the values of this district.
MARZORATI: Republicans definitely also had their eye on that Katie Porter seat, and they're also defending a seat held by incumbent Michelle Steel.
MARTÍNEZ: That's KQED's politics correspondent, Guy Marzorati, in San Jose. Thanks a lot.
MARZORATI: Thanks, A. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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