LEILA FADEL, HOST:
Israel is still vowing to respond to Iran's ballistic missile strikes a few weeks ago. It's part of a terrifying tit for tat between the two regional superpowers that could widen an already escalating war. Meanwhile, Israel is believed to be a nuclear power with 90 warheads, although it refuses to acknowledge its nuclear program, and analysts say Iran could rapidly develop a nuclear weapon if it chose to. It's part of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, while Israel is not. Victor Gilinsky was a commissioner of the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission under Presidents Ford, Carter and Reagan. And he told our co-host Michel Martin how Israel first produced a nuclear explosive device in the late 1960s.
VICTOR GILINSKY: They had a reactor that they got from the French that produced plutonium sufficient for bombs, had, you know, very smart people that knew how to design them. And they also, I think, had help from others, including Americans who had been involved in the program here and then went to Israel.
MICHEL MARTIN, BYLINE: And do we have a sense of what Israel's nuclear capabilities are at this point?
GILINSKY: I don't think we know a lot. We do know they have what we call a triad. You know, they can deliver them by a rocket, by airplanes, and their ultimate deterrent is on submarines. They have submarines that they got from Germany, which they've outfitted with long-range missiles tipped with nuclear warheads.
MARTIN: Why has Israel always refused to confirm or deny the existence of its nuclear program?
GILINSKY: The reasons have changed. You know, initially, it would have been extremely disruptive in terms of the role of the Soviet Union and its relation with the Arab states. We didn't want other countries to get nuclear weapons, but the next best thing is if nobody knew about it. Nevertheless, even though everybody knows, there are certain advantages to them not saying so. For example, I mentioned the German submarines. The Germans know perfectly well what the Israelis are doing with the submarines, and they supply them. But I think it would be a lot more awkward if Israel flatly said, you know, we're using them to put on missiles with nuclear warheads on them. In a way (laughter), it's sort of strange human psychology. It makes a difference whether someone admits something or not, even though you know that they've done it.
MARTIN: It's interesting, 'cause I covered the White House in the administration of George H. W. Bush, and I knew about it. But then when I've talked to colleagues about it, they didn't know about it, and people are continually surprised.
GILINSKY: Well, there's a little more to it. You know, the U.S. has a law called the Glenn Amendment, which would impose very severe sanctions on any country other than the five approved by the NPT, Non-Proliferation Treaty, that set off a nuclear explosion. And it's pretty clear that Israel did so off South Africa in 1979. And if the government took the view that it did, it would have to impose these very severe sanctions. And you might say that all our aid to Israel sort of hangs on ignoring that fact. That isn't quite right, because the president can waive all these sanctions, but it would be politically awkward.
MARTIN: Now we have to bring Iran into this. Iran is an avowed enemy of Israel. It is the chief backer of Hezbollah. Iran is now on the brink of being able to produce a nuclear weapon - I mean, this, according to the veteran nuclear inspector David Albright - and it already has long-range missiles capable of hitting Israel. So do you think we are now facing the threat of a nuclear confrontation?
GILINSKY: Well, it would be a kind of, you know, horse-and-rabbit relationship. I mean, the Israelis have a very formidable nuclear weapons complex. I would make a different point. I don't see how we can deal with all these issues if we pretend Israel doesn't have nuclear weapons, or we don't know. You know, years ago, the countries that are members of the Non-Proliferation Treaty unanimously voted to start a process of just talking about having a meeting and discussing some arrangement for eliminating weapons of mass destruction from the Middle East. The day after, Obama said, none of this is going to happen unless Israel goes along, and, of course, Israel didn't go along. So I don't see how we can just talk about Iran. I mean, where did Iran get the idea to get nuclear weapons?
MARTIN: So you think that the time has come to make this open secret open?
GILINSKY: The Israelis have their own reasons for doing what they do, but we have different interests, and I think it's important that we speak the truth.
MARTIN: That is Victor Gilinsky. He served as a commissioner of the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission under Presidents Ford, Carter and Reagan. Mr. Gilinsky, thank you so much for speaking with us and sharing this expertise.
GILINSKY: Thank you. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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