MICHEL MARTIN, HOST:
Israel has launched extensive airstrikes all over the country on a Hezbollah financial institution. Tensions between Israel and the U.S. also increased over the weekend after the leak of U.S. intelligence documents detailing Israel's plans to strike Iran. And Prime Minister Netanyahu appears undeterred by continued warnings from the U.S. to deescalate conflicts in the region. We've called Aaron David Miller for this because he has advised some six U.S. secretaries of state, and he's written about why America has succeeded or failed in Arab Israeli negotiations. Good morning.
AARON DAVID MILLER: Good morning. Thanks for having me.
MARTIN: Thank you for coming once again. So what tools does President Biden have left as a lame duck president facing a conflict of this scale?
MILLER: Very few, I'm afraid. And if you look at the last year, I think it's evident that the administration, for any reason - any number of reasons - some understandable, perhaps and legitimate, some not - that the administration has had all kinds of leverage to be used but has chosen not to. And now caught between an imminent possibility of reality of an Israeli strike against Iran in retaliation for Iran's Oct. 1 ballistic missile surge against Israel and - on one hand, and among the most consequential presidential elections in modern American history on the other, I think it's highly unlikely - even with the best of intentions - that the administration can do a whole lot in the three weeks that remain before the election.
MARTIN: Do you have a sense of or how much do you think the Israeli prime minister is paying attention to the U.S. presidential race? I mean, in essence, kind of waiting out the clock.
MILLER: You know, politics dominates Benjamin Netanyahu's life. The organizing principle right now and for some time has been an effort to maintain himself in power to avoid the fact that he's on trial for bribery, fraud and breach of trust in a Jerusalem district court due to testify, I might add, in December. And if he doesn't stay in power, he risks either a conviction, possibly or forced to accept the plea agreement that would drive him from power. So, no, politics - his politics and our politics is very much on his mind. And, look, let's be clear. If he could vote in this republic, I think it's quite clear who he would be voting for, and it would not be Kamala Harris.
MARTIN: So - and to this other - this story that emerged over the weekend, this - these leaked documents detailing Israel's possible military strategy against Iran, do we have a sense of whether that is affecting Israel's calculations at this point and sort of more broadly the relationship between these two countries?
MILLER: You know, people leak for any number of reasons. They're angry. They want to feel important. They want to make a point. These were leaked to Telegram, not to The New York Times. I suggest it's sort of a parallel of what happened in 2023 when an international guardsman, Jack Teixeira, who's now serving 16 years for espionage. I think it was that sort of leak. I don't think it's going to affect Israel's operational plans. It does provide fodder, however, for anyone to say, well, you want Israel to coordinate to the United States. They coordinate and look what's happened. So...
MARTIN: Yeah.
MILLER: ...I think this will feed right-wing critics of the United States and argue that the U.S. simply can't be trusted.
MARTIN: And before we let you go, as - when Israeli forces killed the Hamas leader, Yahya Sinwar last week, President Biden hoped that his death could present the opportunity for a day after in Gaza. Are we seeing any signs of a turning point like that yet?
MILLER: Hard to say. Hamas is going to choose a new leader. The Israeli government feels it's on a roll. And again, we're on the cusp of what could be a major escalation between Israel and Iran. Closer than ever if, in fact, it does escalate to a regional war. So I think Gaza, frankly, is going to get lost both by Lebanon and by a looming Israeli-Iranian confrontation.
MARTIN: That's a sobering message there. That's Aaron David Miller. He's a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Aaron David Miller, thank you for joining us once again.
MILLER: Thanks for having me. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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