ERIC WESTERVELT, HOST:
A new president in Mexico faces the same challenge her predecessors did, how to curb rampant violence by drug cartels. The past couple of weeks have seen jarring violence in two state capitals. There were open shoot-outs in the city of Culiacan in the northwest and the gruesome murder of the mayor of Chilpancingo in the south. Earlier this month, President Claudia Sheinbaum, the first woman to ever lead the country, outlined her administration's security strategy. Carlos Bravo Regidor's a political analyst and columnist for El Heraldo de Mexico, and he joins us from Mexico City. Welcome to the program.
CARLOS BRAVO REGIDOR: Hi, Eric. It's a pleasure to be here.
WESTERVELT: So, Carlos, help us put this into perspective. Just how big are the challenges around security and cartel violence that this new administration faces?
REGIDOR: Well, without doubt, security is the main challenge. In the case of Claudia Sheinbaum, she's trying to put together a strategy that has contrasts with what Lopez Obrador did.
WESTERVELT: That's Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, the former president?
REGIDOR: Yes. Claudia Sheinbaum belongs to the same party. And in the case of security, it is, you know, pretty clear that Lopez Obrador's strategy didn't work. She's going to try, within certain limits and restrictions, something different, but at the same time, she cannot call it a change because that would imply recognizing that the Lopez Obrador administration failed.
WESTERVELT: Carlos, give us a clear example perhaps of a change in policy that you see coming from her administration.
REGIDOR: One of the most important changes is the emphasis on intelligence in fighting organized crime. Lopez Obrador's strategy was based on a certain sense of appeasement with criminal organizations, given the fact that frontal combat many times ends up producing more violence. And they wanted to avoid this, so they chose a sort of appeasement policy that, in a way, worked in having homicides not grow but remain with very high levels. But there was no really intelligence strategy to combat the organizations - not through sheer force, but also where it hurts them the most, which is their finances.
WESTERVELT: OK, so she's bolstering intelligence. But you're telling me that the appeasement policy has not brought down the number of homicides. It's sort of just plateaued them.
REGIDOR: There is a small reduction, you know, to be fair. But the thing is that, you know, when you focus so much on homicides as the main indicator, we tend to miss a point, which is the following. Sometimes homicides are just a reflex of the fact that criminal organizations are fighting amongst each other, you know, for the control of territories, for the control of markets. When homicides come down, it doesn't necessarily mean that the state has regained territorial control of security. It might as well mean that organizations have consolidated their control over a region or over a market to the point where homicides are no longer necessary. So, you know, it's very deceiving.
WESTERVELT: And, Carlos, extortion around key industries and produce and farming continues as well, yes?
REGIDOR: Yes, it's almost as if criminal organizations are starting to charge additional taxes to people, to companies. It means that criminal organizations are, in many regions, running the show.
WESTERVELT: President Sheinbaum has talked about expanding social programs to try to prevent young Mexicans from being recruited by organized criminal networks. Is there any evidence, Carlos, that these programs are working?
REGIDOR: No, there isn't. Cash transfers in general have become like a one-size-fits-all solution. It was with Lopez Obrador, and it seems that Claudia Sheinbaum is going to continue down that path. You know, whatever the amount that the state provides to support these young people to, you know, stay in school, don't join the ranks of crime - to put it in very, you know, blunt economic terms, it's not competitive in comparison with the money they can get if they join the gangs. It's sad, but it's just the hard, cold truth.
WESTERVELT: President Sheinbaum's predecessor, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, is also her mentor, and he was wary of cooperating fully with the U.S. in going after the drug cartels. Do you expect her to continue that skeptical approach?
REGIDOR: The thing is this - Mexico has ended up in a very toxic place in American politics. Fentanyl, in particular, the traffic of fentanyl to the U.S., has become a domestic problem, and the U.S. is clearly tired of Mexico's appeasement approach and has taken, you know, a different path. This might be telling us that priorities, securitywise, between Mexico and the U.S. are not aligned. And if they are not aligned, it's very hard to assume that there will be any more cooperation. Quite to the contrary, I think this is a scenario where there is going to be conflict between both governments regarding what to do about violence and about drug trafficking.
WESTERVELT: Carlos Bravo Regidor is a political analyst and journalist in Mexico City. Carlos, thanks for talking with us.
REGIDOR: Thank you. It's been a pleasure.
(SOUNDBITE OF MUSIC) Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
NPR transcripts are created on a rush deadline by an NPR contractor. This text may not be in its final form and may be updated or revised in the future. Accuracy and availability may vary. The authoritative record of NPR’s programming is the audio record.
