AYESHA RASCOE, HOST:
First, it was Hurricane Helene, then it was Hurricane Milton. And next, in just two weeks, Florida was battered by two devastating storms. And that's once again raising questions about the future of the Sunshine State. Colin Polsky is a professor of Geosciences at Florida Atlantic University, and he joins us now. Welcome to the program.
COLIN POLSKY: Thank you for having me.
RASCOE: Has Florida become more vulnerable to hurricanes in recent years, either because of climate change or because of demographic patterns?
POLSKY: The answer is it's a little bit of both. So when we ask the question about vulnerability, we look at three main dimensions. There's exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. On the exposure side, we're more vulnerable in the sense that we have more people and valuable things, such as residences, businesses, and hospitals in harm's way. In terms of sensitivity, we've gotten a little better in the sense that the state has put forth some pretty respectable adaptation projects. And in terms of adaptive capacity, it's a bit of a mixed bag because as our population becomes more experienced with hurricanes, we expect people to get better at it. By the same token, we're getting 1,000 people a day - new residents.
RASCOE: There's also the issue of some insurance companies. They now refuse to write new homeowners policies for Florida, and rates are going up for existing customers. What will be the impact of these two storms on the insurance market?
POLSKY: Well, you've hit on a super important topic. It's probably going to be a challenge for the insurance and also the reinsurance industry to pay the bills. You know, if trends of impacts on the insurance industry in recent years are any guide, this kind of 1-2 punch we just had this year is not going to bode well.
RASCOE: Are there other longterm changes that you see happening as a result of these storms? Can authorities do more to protect people and properties?
POLSKY: I will say that the state deserves credit in recent years for really stepping up in terms of projects that help reduce flood risk. They've also been proactive in putting together programs that help homeowners improve their home's ability to withstand high winds. And so that's kind of, you know, a good signal from recent years.
RASCOE: Are there limits, though, to what can be done and limits to adaptability? You know, when it comes to water levels rising, and now with these super strong storms hitting, is there a limit to what can be done to make the state more adaptable to this?
POLSKY: I'd say there's basically never an engineering limit. Like, we can always build something. The question is, how much will it cost and will it feel like it's worth it? And for some neighborhoods already in the coming decade or so, I would say, they're going to start to really face the choice. They'll be at that tipping point. Is it worth it to keep investing?
RASCOE: I mean, obviously, this is a global issue, but do you think that the state should be doing more to address, you know, when it comes to emissions?
POLSKY: Well, that's kind of often the second piece to the equation. There's adaptation and then mitigations. The second piece is emissions, and there I'm less optimistic. And I'm kind of equally angry with both sides. On the left, I would say very clearly, whether it's people in the scientific community who are kind of trying to raise public awareness or activists. There's really quite often - or even President Biden did this about a year ago in Florida after a hurricane is basically saying people are dumb if they don't believe and if they're not on board with specific actions. And that just doesn't go over well, and that's just what has happened is it's not helped the conversation. It hasn't advanced a consensus. On the misinformation side, you know, it's more of a Republican thing. So that also hasn't contributed to a consensus on emissions. But the more we can do in terms of energy efficiency as well as renewables, the better.
And that'll help those of us stuck out here on the front lines exposed to the hurricanes and the rising seas and such, have a longer-term confidence.
RASCOE: That's Professor Colin Polsky from Florida Atlantic University. Thank you so much for joining us.
POLSKY: Thank you. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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