AYESHA RASCOE, HOST:
It's been about two weeks since Iran's strike on Israel, and Israel has vowed to strike back, which would signal a major escalation of tensions. The six Gulf Arab states that make up the Gulf Cooperation Council or GCC, which includes Saudi Arabia, are anxiously watching for that Israeli response. Mehran Haghirian is director of regional initiatives at the Bourse and Bazaar Foundation, a U.K.-based nonprofit think tank. Welcome to the program.
MEHRAN HAGHIRIAN: Thank you for having me.
RASCOE: So Iranian officials have stepped up meetings and visits with their Arab neighbors over the past week or so. What is coming out of these conversations?
HAGHIRIAN: So it's interesting to note that the day after the Iranian missile attacks against Israel on October 1, there was the meeting in Doha on the sidelines of the Asia Cooperation dialogue. And it was the first time that there was an informal - albeit informal - joint ministerial meeting between the foreign ministers of the GCC states and Iran. At that meeting, the GCC states really wanted to convey reassurances to Iran, for example, that their air spaces will not be used by Israel or the U.S. for an attack against Iran. But at the same time, they also wanted to make sure that Iran understands and is on the same page with them with regards to attacks on their energy infrastructure. That is something that they are quite worried about, particularly when you look at what happened in 2019, 2020, when the Iranian-backed Houthis basically attacked Aramco facilities, facilities in Abqaiq and Khurais in Saudi Arabia, as well as off the coast of Fujairah in the UAE.
RASCOE: Well, so all of these states, though - they have a good relationship with the U.S., and some like Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have been normalizing ties with Israel, even as they oppose Israel's actions in Gaza and the West Bank. Where do they stand on an Israeli strike on Iran?
HAGHIRIAN: I think they are, all six GCC states, stand opposed to such a strike against Iran. Obviously, there are many considerations that the GCC states have against on Iran, particularly Iranian actions in the Middle East and its support for militants and non-state actors. And they have - each state has a lot of bilateral issues with Iran, particularly the UAE with regards to the islands or Saudi Arabia and political issues in the region. But at the same time, they're not willing for the region to get dragged into a war. And they're really trying since October 7 last year, to really try to prevent the war from expanding broader in the region.
RASCOE: Some of these Gulf Arab states or kingdoms host U.S. military bases - Bahrain, Kuwait, and the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia. What does a war with Iran mean for them? Like, will those bases be targets?
HAGHIRIAN: So as you can see in the past few weeks, the statements coming out of the GCC states has been that they are basically trying to give messages to the U.S. and to Iran officially, unofficially, that their territory will not be used for an offensive attack against Iran. This is despite the fact that, for example, in the April attack, April missile attacks that Iran conducted against Israel, there are reports that Saudi Arabia and other Arab states were involved in intercepting Iranian missiles, for example, in cooperation with the U.S. and Israel. And this goes back to what has been going on between the U.S., Israel and the GCC states for some time since the Trump administration and wanting to establish a Middle East air defense cooperation. And this basically falls in line to that. But the meetings of the past few days and few weeks, especially after 1 October attack has been to basically tell Iran that the GCC states are conveying the messages to the U.S. that their military bases will not be used against that attack.
RASCOE: What do Washington and Tel Aviv get wrong about the relationship between Iran and its Arab neighbors?
HAGHIRIAN: I think in D.C. policy circles, you can see that in the past few years, there has been this push for normalization of relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia with the hopes that that will lead to a Palestinian state. But that has also been basically approached in a manner that it's an anti Iran alliance. The GCC states that are party or partner to these agreements are not really viewing it in that same light. Obviously, the GCC states - as I mentioned, they have many anxieties and concerns when it comes to Iran. But they do not really see a military alliance against Iran today would serve that purpose. Obviously, again Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and the UAE were part of the architects, the primary architects of the Trump administration's maximum pressure campaign against Iran. But the military attacks that occurred in 2019, 2020 and the lack of a U.S. response against Iran really pushed these countries to move forward towards dialogue and diplomacy rather than confrontation and isolation.
RASCOE: That's Mehran Haghirian of the Bourse and Bazaar Foundation. Thank you so much for speaking with us today.
HAGHIRIAN: Thank you. Thank you very much. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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