SCOTT SIMON, HOST:
Florida, North Carolina and Georgia recover from Hurricanes Milton and Helene as November 5 is just three weeks away. NPR senior political editor and correspondent Domenico Montanaro joins us. Domenico, thanks so much for being with us.
DOMENICO MONTANARO, BYLINE: I'm glad to be with you.
SIMON: North Carolina and Georgia are among the states considered most critical in the 2024 elections. Now there are calls on the federal government for emergency aid. There are concerns about people in those states being able to vote in many places. Could these storms - and it's still hurricane season, of course - become an election issue?
MONTANARO: Well, they certainly could. I mean, Helene in particular is something that a lot of election watchers are watching because, you know, especially in North Carolina, western North Carolina - we've seen devastating pictures out of Asheville, for example - Democrats got over 100,000 votes there in 2020, and that's about what they normally get. But it's not just Asheville - you know, some of the more rural counties around there as well. Trump overall won 52% of the counties FEMA designated as places residents could qualify for aid, 57% of the Georgia counties that were affected. And, you know, if you take Charlotte out, you know, where Mecklenburg County is - and was just added to the list this past week - Trump won 62% of the votes in those counties. So his team, really concerned about that, but, you know, his own misinformation has also been a huge part of the problem and sowed chaos as officials are really trying to get help to people who need it.
SIMON: Thursday, Kamala Harris held a town hall on Univision. Donald Trump will do so this coming Wednesday. What did you hear from the vice president? What do you expect from former President Trump?
MONTANARO: Yeah. It's interesting. I think she really tried to walk a line on immigration. She said that she wants to see a path for citizenship for people who are here working hard, but she also wants stronger border security, and that sort of hints at the fact that there are some Latinos here who have been here a while, who think that they did it the right way. And you know, they're not just concerned about immigration. You know, they're concerned about the economy - something that Latino strategists I talked to say is like what everybody else cares about, right? And in a place like Nevada, where this town hall was held, you know, this is a working-class state. It's a place that really is affected by the pinch of prices, and Democrats are worried about how they're doing with Latinos because, you know, in 2020, even though Joe Biden won Latinos in all seven of the swing states, he won them by less than Hillary Clinton did in 2016. So we're seeing real movement here.
SIMON: Want to ask about another voting demographic, which often has just about the largest turnout percentage, and that is older voters. What currents in the campaign do you see that might affect them now?
MONTANARO: I think this has been super interesting in this campaign. You know, for most of this year, whether it's been Biden or Harris. You know, she's consistently led. Either of them have consistently led with seniors, people 65 and older. And if that holds, you know, Harris would be the first Democrat win seniors since 2000, when Al Gore did it 51-47. She's actually been leading in the polls slightly larger than that, overall. And that could be incredibly important for Harris because, as you say, they're among the most likely voters to vote. And with older voters, as well as white voters with college degrees, Harris has been winning by huge margins with them, and that's a group that Trump won in 2016, but Biden won mostly in 2020. And these are two groups, like I said, who vote at very high rates that Democrats feel like if they can win them, then they can make up some of these maybe margins that they're losing with Latinos and maybe younger Black men.
SIMON: Less than a month to go. Domenico, what stands out to you as you look at the landscape of 2024?
MONTANARO: You know, it's amazing to me just how tight this race is and for how long it's been, but it's gotten even tighter. I mean, I looked at an average of the polls in all seven states yesterday. Harris' lead is down to just 0.38 percentage points in them. I mean, that is as razor's edge as it possibly gets. And it looks like Harris is no longer continuing to expand her lead, has really plateaued here. And that has a lot of Democrats increasingly nervous about the potential outcome, because in 2016 and 2020, the polls overstated Democrats' strength. Does that mean Trump's going to win? Maybe. Have the polls fixed some of the issues that they've had in the past? That's possible, too. Plus, the polls understated Democrat support in 2022. So we don't know. The most important thing here right now is mobilization of votes as these campaigns are trying to get their voters to bank their votes now.
SIMON: NPR's Domenico Montanaro. Thanks so much.
MONTANARO: You're welcome. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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