A MARTÍNEZ, HOST:
Tunisia was once a beacon for democracy in a region emerging from the Arab Spring revolts against authoritarian regimes. Now it faces what our next guest calls a high-risk presidential election Sunday with mass arrests, including of opposition candidates, and a newly amended electoral law. All as Tunisia's president, Kais Saied, seeks a second term. Our co-host Leila Fadel spoke with Michael Ayari, the Tunisia senior analyst with Crisis Group.
LEILA FADEL, HOST:
In this election, 17 candidates applied to run. But the electoral commission approved just three of those candidates, including President Kais Saied. How much power does he have over the electoral commission that's overseeing this election?
MICHAEL AYARI: This commission has been created just after the beginning of the Arab Spring, you know, in 2011, you know, when there was a former dictator in Tunisia that'd been ousted, you know? And it was a kind of independent commission, of course. But with time, with the regression of democracy, it has been something totally controlled. And after the self-coup of Saied in 2021 in July, when he concentrated all the power, when he published a decree in order to concentrate power after a new constitution, it's an open secret in Tunisia that he controls this commission.
FADEL: You mentioned 2021, which was when President Kais Saied dismissed the government of Hichem Mechichi, suspended the Assembly...
AYARI: Exactly.
FADEL: ...Of the Representatives of the People and revoked the immunity of its members. And it was seen as him taking power for himself. When you think about this election and the electoral project that he has, what is he trying to do?
AYARI: He has a kind of socialist-oriented theory, you know, behind him. He made a kind of mixture of everything - of Libya from Gaddafi, of the experience of Iran, for example. He had around him lots of people who were former Maoists, you know, who believe in Mao Zedong. And for him, there is the milieu, as we say in French. The business milieu is something bad, you know, because it's corrupted by the foreigners, by France and the U.S. And he has to purify that. He has to arrest these people, and he has to give the power to the people.
FADEL: If he is elected, and if this isn't a free and fair election in October, which it doesn't look like it will be, what does that say about Tunisia's status as a fledgling democracy? I mean, Tunisia was seen as the place where they were inching along, not perfect at all, but inching along on a process where democracy was being born.
AYARI: The problem is that unfortunately, the democratic transition ended in July 2021, when there was...
FADEL: When he took power.
AYARI: ...His concentration of power.
FADEL: Yeah.
AYARI: And if he's reelected, it will be an acceleration of the authoritarian regime. And much more than that, there is a clear risk that Tunisia will be a vassal totally subjugated by Algeria. And the importance of Russia, the influence of Iran, the influence of China will be bigger. And Tunisia has been seen and was closer to westerners, like Morocco, you know, historically. And now it's the contrary. There is a clear risk of, could I say, not to be a failed state, but a weaker state. What we can say is that democracy is not at all on the agenda.
FADEL: Why should this matter to anyone outside of Tunisia? I mean, this is a small North African country. Should people care beyond the borders of this country?
AYARI: This is the main problem, because Tunisia has been praised as an example. And people who wanted to defend this democracy, who believed in liberal democracy, who believed in Arab Spring, they are currently in exile or jailed. And nobody defend them. I think it's something that can be reproduced elsewhere.
FADEL: That's Crisis Group's Tunisia senior analyst Michael Ayari speaking with us from Paris. Thank you so much for your time.
AYARI: You're welcome.
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