STEVE INSKEEP, HOST:
Israel is signaling that it will respond to an attack by Iran. Iranians launched about 180 missiles at Israel this week. Missile defenses blocked most of the Iranian assault, but Israelis viewed that as a serious escalation in the ongoing war. So how to strike back? Reporters asked President Biden if he would support an Israeli strike on Iranian nuclear facilities. We can listen carefully to his answer over the sound of Air Force One.
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PRESIDENT JOE BIDEN: The answer is no. And I think there's things - we'll be discussing with the Israelis what they're going to do, but all seven of us agree that they have a right to respond.
INSKEEP: All seven of us - he's referring to the group of seven leading economies. So what kind of strike would match U.S. interests as well as Israel's? David Schenker is a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, and he served in the State Department during the Trump administration. Good morning, sir.
DAVID SCHENKER: Good morning.
INSKEEP: Is it clear to you that Israel has to respond, given that it successfully fended off most of the attack?
SCHENKER: Yeah, Israel will respond, I think substantially. They're not going to just take the win here. They can't normalize continued direct Iranian missile attack on Israel. I think there has to be something substantial.
INSKEEP: I suppose if you're defending your country, you can't assume that your missile defenses will always work. But let's talk about what that response is. President Biden says, no, don't go blowing up their nuclear sites, which Israel might love to do, given the opportunity. I presume the president is saying it is not in the world's interest, or not in U.S. interests, to strike the nuclear sites. Why not?
SCHENKER: Well, a month out from the election, certainly, the United States doesn't want to get dragged into a conflict with Iran at this point. Plus, that would perhaps drag other countries into this. So Israel's going to have to pick its targets very carefully. It says it might consider oil infrastructure - the oil transfer island of Kharg Island - but the Iranians have warned that they would target Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Kuwait if Israel did so, so they're going to have to pick carefully.
INSKEEP: So I suppose we're still in a situation where it's not all-out war, as much as it may feel like it to us. The Israelis don't want to go as far as they might go, or the Americans don't want the Israelis to go that far. Do you believe Israel would see it the same way - it's not in their interest to go all out?
SCHENKER: Well, I think Israel sees an opportunity. They're on a run here. They've been under attack, basically, by, you know, five, six Iranian proxies for the past year. They have set back two of those proxies, Hamas and Hezbollah - Hezbollah spectacularly in the past two weeks - and so they've got some momentum here. They don't want to give up. They want to reestablish the deterrence that has eroded so much over the past years and perhaps take the opportunity to deal a serious blow to Iran in the process, as well.
INSKEEP: It's interesting when you say deterrence has eroded, meaning that people have felt free to attack Israel. I wonder if Iran's position has seriously eroded. One Iranian proxy after another and then Iran's missile forces have been shown to be way less potent than people thought.
SCHENKER: Yeah, don't forget about Zahedi, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard commander in Damascus who was killed by Israel; Ismail Haniyeh, in the heart of Tehran, under the protection of the Revolutionary Guard; the pager attack in Lebanon; the killing of Hassan Nasrallah; the elimination of all of the senior officials of Hezbollah - Iran has experienced enormous humiliation over the past several months and really, I think, feels that they had to do something, which is why they attacked. But they are, indeed, on their back feet right now.
INSKEEP: If they're in a desperate situation, might the Iranians do something desperate?
SCHENKER: Well, I think the second missile attack on Israel was a sign of desperation of sorts, knowing that they're not going to get a successful attack off and knowing that the retribution is going to be severe. But they had to do it, after all this humiliation.
INSKEEP: OK. David Schenker, thanks so much. I really appreciate your insights this morning.
SCHENKER: My pleasure. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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