MICHEL MARTIN, HOST:
Israel says it is using air power and artillery to support, quote-unquote, "limited and localized" ground raids against Hezbollah in southern Lebanon. The new offensive follows a wave of deadly explosions using pagers that were turned into bombs, two weeks of Israeli airstrikes and the assassination on Friday of the Hezbollah leader, Hassan Nasrallah. Here is the U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken.
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ANTONY BLINKEN: Hassan Nasrallah was a brutal terrorist. Lebanon, the region, the world are safer without him.
MARTIN: Let's ask Nicholas Blanford about that. He is a security consultant and nonresident senior fellow with the Atlantic Council, and he is with us this morning from Beirut. Good morning, Mr. Blanford.
NICHOLAS BLANFORD: Good morning.
MARTIN: So what about that? I mean, is the region safer?
BLANFORD: Well, far from it, I would say. We've had a conflict going on for nearly a year between Hezbollah and the Israeli military, which has greatly escalated over the last couple of weeks. The Israelis have staged very heavy airstrikes across areas of Lebanon where Hezbollah has a military presence, so that includes south Lebanon, the Beqaa Valley, the southern suburbs of Beirut. The Israelis have decimated the political and military leadership of Hezbollah, including the leader Hassan Nasrallah, who was killed last week. And now, as of last night, Israeli troops are actually on the ground in south Lebanon beginning some probes, some reconnaissance - basically getting boots on the ground to try to take out Hezbollah positions close to the border with Israel. So a very violent episode at the moment that probably is not going to end soon.
MARTIN: So let's talk about a little bit - sort of take this a little bit - piece by piece. How much did the killing of Nasrallah and other Hezbollah leaders degrade Hezbollah's capabilities?
BLANFORD: Well, it's difficult to tell. I mean, certainly it's a huge blow to morale. Hassan Nasrallah has helmed Hezbollah for 32 years. He oversaw the expansion of Hezbollah from a pretty small - a lightly armed guerrilla force back in the early '90s fighting the then-Israeli occupation of south Lebanon. Today, Hezbollah is probably the most formidable non-state armed actor in the world. It's the most influential political player in Lebanon. Hassan Nasrallah became a regional figure. He wasn't just the head of a political party in Lebanon.
So the morale blow is very hard. It's the biggest hit they've had in their 42 years of existence. But it is a very structured institution, so it's not top-heavy with generals and foot soldiers and - below them and nothing in between. So there is an officer cadre, and there are deputies, and they would have moved into the leadership roles as the military commanders were killed. Now, obviously filling Hassan Nasrallah's boots is going to be very difficult because of the stature he had, but there is a structure underway.
MARTIN: So given that - now that Hezbollah is facing Israeli troops moving into southern Lebanon, do you have a sense of how they are likely to respond?
BLANFORD: Well, in some respects, the advantage could begin to shift towards Hezbollah's favor. They've had 18 years since the last conflict in 2006 to prepare the ground in south Lebanon for exactly this kind of eventuality. And despite the leadership being hit very heavily over the last two weeks, Hezbollah fighters are still deployed in south Lebanon. They are firing rockets into Israel every single day. They've fired a salvo of ballistic missiles that hit the Tel Aviv area earlier this morning. So we could see some quite tough fighting on the ground. In the 2006 war, of course, Hezbollah was able to fight the Israelis on the ground to a standstill, and this may be the case again. Obviously, the Israelis will have learned lessons from the 2006 war and will presumably apply them now. But it's going to be quite tricky, I think, for the Israelis, and they may face some unpleasant surprises going forward.
MARTIN: And very briefly, if you can - and given that Iran is Hezbollah's main backer and has vowed revenge, what can Hezbollah count on from Tehran?
BLANFORD: Well, the Iranians will continue to support Hezbollah, and they may even play a greater role in controlling the organization, at least until the new secretary general is elected and has found his feet. So the support is going to remain there between the Iranians and Hezbollah going forward.
MARTIN: That is Nicholas Blanford. He's a security consultant, as we said, based in Beirut. And you can find our full coverage of this developing story and differing views at npr.org/mideastupdates. Mr. Blanford, thank you for joining us.
BLANFORD: You're welcome. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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