LEILA FADEL, HOST:
Hezbollah is a Lebanese militant and political group that is seen as the crown jewel of Iran's so-called Axis of Resistance - a group of militants in the region, including Hamas in Gaza and the Houthis in Yemen, that act as a deterrence shield for Iran. The groups are designated in the U.S. as terrorist organizations. So what does the assassinations of the head of Hezbollah and much of its leadership mean for Iran and its standing in the region? Negar Mortazavi joins me now to discuss. She's a senior fellow at the Center for International Policy and hosts "The Iran Podcast." Last week, she attended a meeting with scholars and the Iranian president, Masoud Pezeshkian, outside the official proceedings of the United Nations General Assembly. Good morning. Thank you for being on the program.
NEGAR MORTAZAVI: Good morning. Thanks for having me.
FADEL: Now, Hezbollah is the most elite force that Iran funds, arms, works with. And yet we've seen no really tangible response from Iran so far, nor a response when the head of Hamas was killed in Tehran. Is Iran deterred?
MORTAZAVI: Well, you can say, to some extent, yes. They're waiting. I think they don't see an equal footing in this war. We can say Israel has won this battle or these battles for now. And Iran has been showing - I would call it restraint, especially after the episode we saw back in April. This is under the previous administration. The previous president in Iran was a hard-liner and conservative, Ebrahim Raisi. Back then, when the Israelis attacked the Iranian consulate in Syria, Iran retaliated immediately with an attack from its soil into Israeli soil, which was unprecedented, and then a response came.
I think that attack was used as sort of a warning shot from Iran. And, you know, you only get one warning shot, and then you have to react. And now's the time that everyone is waiting for Iran to react, and I think they just don't see the time yet for that initial shot. Essentially, their reaction, which I think they're afraid - it's clear that they're afraid - would essentially escalate this war into that big regional war that everyone's been talking about avoiding.
FADEL: Now, if they don't react, as you put it, could this moment actually spell the end of the regime in Iran and a change in the power dynamic in the region?
MORTAZAVI: I don't think it would spell the end of the regime, but it would be a watershed moment for the entirety of what's called the Axis of Resistance. Essentially, Iran, the state - combination of state and nonstate actors - Iran and Syria and a group of militants that are nonstate actors - Hezbollah, Hamas, the Houthis, Shia militias in Iraq - who've had sort of a collaboration and cooperation, especially in the past 10 months. And now is the time that sort of these smaller forces have all been hit, and everyone's looking to the top of the pyramid, which is Iran, to react and sort of come to their support.
But at the same time, these forces, you could say, were on the front line, so obviously, you take more hit when you're on the front line. And Tehran is sort of sitting in the room, thinking and deciding what to do to establish deterrence, in their view, but, at the same time, not escalate this into something that gets out of proportion, explode into something that they can't control. And I think that's the internal dynamic and discussion in Iran right now that we're hearing.
FADEL: And that carefulness - is that because of their concern about going into a direct conflict with the U.S, a major ally of Israel?
MORTAZAVI: Definitely. Going into direct conflict with Israel, even - Iran and Israel have been engaged in a shadow war, in an...
FADEL: Right.
MORTAZAVI: ...Indirect conflict, for years. But Iran has been careful into not really escalating that into direct conflict. Even, I would argue, in April, they took a risk, but they thought the calculation is that this is a one-off. Essentially, they're establishing deterrence or going back to the previous red lines of that shadow war. And I think right now, what they're really trying to avoid - and they have messaged this both publicly and behind the scenes through a back channel to the United States, that they're not interested in this escalating into a war with the U.S. But I think on the Israeli side, actually, we see interest in expanding the war and potentially bringing the U.S. into it for their support.
FADEL: I want to ask you about another factor. I mean, we've seen mixed responses to Nasrallah's death in the region - anger and sadness from supporters, celebrations from people who didn't like the group and didn't like Nasrallah. But there's also another response, a lot of anger from Hezbollah supporters directed at Iran, who feel abandoned. So as Iran faces increasing pressure from Israel and this anger from supporters of these groups, how vulnerable is it?
MORTAZAVI: Well, I would say they're pretty vulnerable, but there's also a new administration in Iran. Their reformist president was just elected. And in New York, he was also messaging, both publicly and also in meetings, that they're interested in prioritizing diplomacy and de-escalating this situation, de-escalating the war, and obviously with an eye on a cease-fire in Gaza, which has been, all along, the demand.
FADEL: Negar Mortazavi is a senior fellow at the Center for International Policy and the host of "The Iran Podcast". Thank you so much.
MORTAZAVI: Thanks for having me. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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