AILSA CHANG, HOST:
The killing of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah was a serious blow to Iran. It considered Hezbollah a key proxy against Israel, and it has armed the powerful militant group for decades. Now, there are questions about whether Iran will respond or if it even has the military capability to fight an actual war with Israel. NPR's Jackie Northam reports.
JACKIE NORTHAM, BYLINE: Iran's military strategy is based on deterrence, relying on armed proxies like Hezbollah to confront Israel so it doesn't have to. Now Israel is dismantling those proxies, and Iran faces a decision - whether to reinforce Hezbollah or step into the fray.
On paper, Iran's military looks formidable. Fabian Hinz, who studies Iran's military at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in Berlin, says there are about a half a million active duty personnel split up between the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, or IRGC, and the regular army.
FABIAN HINZ: The regular army has a huge number of soldiers, but most of these are conscripts that are not that well-motivated, not that well-trained. The IRGC is smaller, but is closer to an elite force than the regular army.
NORTHAM: The IRGC work with a network of proxies across the Middle East. Iran has been building up its navy, says Nicole Grajewski, an Iran specialist at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. But she says Iran's air defenses are weak, as is its air force.
NICOLE GRAJEWSKI: And that's because most of its equipment is from prerevolution, so a lot of U.S. aircraft from the '70s, and also because Iran's been really marred or set back by sanctions on its aviation industry.
NORTHAM: Shortly after the Islamic Revolution in the late 1970s, Iran realized it could never compete with U.S. or Israeli air forces. Hinz says instead, it focused on developing and producing ballistic missiles and drones.
HINZ: The Iranian arsenal of ballistic missiles and suicide drones is considered the largest in the Middle East, and that's basically a result of them really focusing on these capabilities as part of the asymmetric war-fighting strategy.
NORTHAM: The general consensus is that Iran has some 3,000 ballistic missiles, which for years proved a strong deterrent. But in early April, Israel conducted an air strike on an Iranian consulate in Syria. It took Iran two weeks to retaliate with a drone and missile strike. Michael Eisenstadt, a military specialist at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, says Iran's response raised questions about the effectiveness of their weapons.
MICHAEL EISENSTADT: Iran launched over 300 drones and missiles at Israel, and nearly all were shot down by the Israelis and its allies - most importantly, the United States. No doubt, the Iranians are drawing lessons from that, and the next time they will do it differently and probably better.
NORTHAM: It was unclear from the weak response whether Iranians restrained themselves in order not to provoke Israel or whether that was the best they could do. Eisenstadt says, regardless, Iran's reputation is at stake. He says, for many years, Iran was seen as a country not to be trifled with.
EISENSTADT: Their main problem now is also their image. You know, their proxies are weak. You know, Hamas is defeated. Hezbollah is on the ropes. And their missiles can be intercepted. So this is a crisis they're facing, and it's not clear how they're going to work their way out of this.
NORTHAM: Hinz, with the International Institute for Strategic Studies, says Iran's leadership has long made clear it doesn't want to go to war.
HINZ: Their main priority is regime survival. They've openly said so. They basically express that priority in ideological terms as well, saying if real Shia Islam wants to survive, the Islamic Republic in Iran has to survive. So I think from their side, at least, a major confrontation with Israel seems rather unlikely.
NORTHAM: Although Iran may not have much choice if Israel keeps pushing ahead with its offensive all the way to Iran.
Jackie Northam, NPR News.
(SOUNDBITE OF SEPALOT SONG, "LOVE OCEAN") Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
NPR transcripts are created on a rush deadline by an NPR contractor. This text may not be in its final form and may be updated or revised in the future. Accuracy and availability may vary. The authoritative record of NPR’s programming is the audio record.
