A MARTÍNEZ, HOST:
Today marks 300 days of war in Gaza. It is one day after separate attacks killed leaders of Hamas and Hezbollah, putting the region and world on alert for a broader war. For the latest, we're joined now by NPR Pentagon correspondent Tom Bowman in Washington and NPR international correspondent Aya Batrawy in Dubai. Aya, let's start with you. You're right there in the gulf. Help us understand how Israel and Iran view these latest attacks.
AYA BATRAWY, BYLINE: OK. So since this war in Gaza began October 7, Hezbollah and Israel have been trading fire, and people have lost their homes and their lives on both sides of that shared Lebanese-Israeli border. But it hadn't yet escalated to the level of a ground invasion or full-scale war, though both sides say they're ready if it comes to that. But over the weekend, we saw a missile kill 12 children from the minority Druze community in an area Israel seized control of from Syria called the Golan Heights. So Israel blamed Hezbollah for that attack, and Hezbollah says that's not true.
MARTÍNEZ: Yeah. And then Israel struck back.
BATRAWY: Right. And the response to that was what we saw happen just recently which was Israel killing Hezbollah's top military commander in a suburb of Beirut in the heart of Lebanon and the killing of Ismail Haniyeh, that is the exiled political leader of the Palestinian group Hamas, while he was visiting Iran. He was in Tehran as a guest of Iran at a moment when Iran was hosting Arab dignitaries and really showing off its reach by also inviting the leaders from its various proxy groups in the region for a ceremony for Iran's new president. Now, these attacks are a blow to Iran. And the country's supreme leader has vowed to avenge Haniyeh's killing on Iranian soil. Now, as for Israel, which saw its defenses crumble on October 7 in the Hamas-led attacks, these strikes help it reclaim some of what was lost that day, reminding not just Israelis but also regional allies of the country's intelligence capabilities or what Israel likes to call it's deterrence.
MARTÍNEZ: Tom Bowman, what are the risks to U.S. military in the region? We've already heard twice this week Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin repeat the U.S. will defend Israel in a war with Iran. So what are the risks there?
TOM BOWMAN, BYLINE: Well, first of all, there's been an ongoing concern for years of Iranian-backed militias in Iraq targeting U.S. forces, as they've done on many occasions, and even more so now since the Hamas attack on Israel back in October, with Israel going after the Iranian proxy, Hamas in Gaza, as well as Hezbollah in Lebanon. So the U.S. has beefed up its defenses in Iraq, and just yesterday, there was a U.S. strike south of Baghdad on a facility that the U.S. says was attempting to launch one-way attack drones. Remember, there are some 2,500 U.S. troops in Iraq, training Iraqui forces and helping Iraq go after remnants of the Islamic state. One military official I spoke with told me, after that hit in Tehran, we expect to get hit as well. So the latest Israeli strike is making - what we assume is an Israeli strike - is making U.S. officials nervous, fearing more attacks on U.S. troops as well as a wider regional war, something the U.S. has been trying to prevent since October.
MARTÍNEZ: And are those nervous U.S. officials saying anything?
BOWMAN: Well, the U.S. officials really aren't saying much. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the U.S. was not involved in that strike on the Hamas political leader and was not aware of it, no word from the Pentagon. And national security spokesman John Kirby told reporters the U.S. has no independent confirmation that Israel killed the Hamas leader, as Hamas has claimed. But he said such an attack is not helpful to the goal of a cease-fire and preventing a wider conflict. Let's listen.
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JOHN KIRBY: These reports over the last 24, 48 hours certainly don't help with the temperature going down. I'm not going to be Polyanna-ish about it. We're obviously concerned about escalation. All of this adds to the complicated nature of what we're trying to get done, and what we're trying to get done is a cease-fire deal.
BOWMAN: So what does that deal look like now with the top Hamas negotiator dead? We just don't know what the way ahead looks like at this point for a cease-fire.
MARTÍNEZ: So, Aya, on those cease-fire efforts, how do these attacks affect that, and also the attempt to try and free captives on both sides?
BATRAWY: Well, as we heard, the Biden administration has been trying for weeks to put a positive spin on these talks, continuously saying that they're near their final stages. But I can say that what I've heard from mediators for these talks, which are Egypt and Qatar, that that is not their assessment. These are very complex negotiations. We are talking about the future of the Gaza strip, we're talking about Israeli troop withdraw from Gaza, how this war will end. And we heard Qatar's prime minister yesterday condeming the killing of Ismail Haniyeh, basically saying, you know, how do you expect the mediation efforts to succeed when one party assassinates the negotiator on the other side?
MARTÍNEZ: Yeah. The lead negotiator, in fact.
BATRAWY: Right. I mean, he's not the guy calling the shots, but he's the one in the meetings. And so, you know, Egypt, the other mediator here, is saying the killing of Haniyeh, now coupled with continued attacks on civilians in Gaza, show that Israel's not interested in calm. Gaza's Health Ministry says the death toll is nearing at least 40,000 Palestinians killed in Gaza. And so for months now, mediators have been telling us that the negotiations have actually be scuttled by Israel's prime minister time and again. His right-wing coalition wants to continue the war.
MARTÍNEZ: Yeah. And Benjamin Netanyahu did make public remarks yesterday. What did he say?
BATRAWY: He struck a defiant tone. Let's have a listen.
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BENJAMIN NETANYAHU: (Non-English language spoken).
BATRAWY: So he says there hasn't been a week where people haven't told him, whether inside Israel or abroad, to end the war in Gaza because Israel's achieved all it can and total victory is Impossible. But he says, I haven't succumbed yet to those voices, and I won't now. But look, even members of his own military are saying the goal of eradicating Hamas is too broad, it's not possible. Israel has killed Hamas leaders over the years. But the group claims that this only boosts its credibility and popularity on the ground.
MARTÍNEZ: Tom, back in April, Iran launched missiles at Israel after the killing two Iranian generals. Nearly all of those were intercepted, with the support of the U.S. and other partners. But what's the likelihood that Iran's expected retaliation this time can also be contained from turning into an all-out war in the region?
BOWMAN: Well, maybe it's important to note that this is a Hamas leader and not an Iranian political or military leader, which maybe would have sparked a heavy Iranian response. Still, this was an attack on Tehran, the Iranian capitol. So the big question is if and how Iran will respond. They say they will. Will they simply use their proxies in Iraq and Lebanon to hit Israel or the U.S.? Will they use their own forces? One official I spoke with said we may know the answer to that after the funeral Friday for Ismail Haniyeh.
BATRAWY: And look, despite everything we're seeing, it still appears that Iran, Hezbollah and Israel do want to avoid a wider war. So these tit-for-tat attacks and strikes, they do keep happening, but they've sort of been limited in scope. Now, that said, so as long as Israel continues the war in Gaza, the chances for misfires and miscalculations in the region persist. So again, it's not about just restraint, but about ending the war in Gaza and a real deescalation to sort of end this brinkmanship and pull the Mideast back from more wars.
MARTÍNEZ: NPR's Aya Batrawy in Dubai and Tom Bowman in Washington. My thanks to you both.
BOWMAN: You're welcome.
BATRAWY: Thank you, A, and it's always good to hear from you, Tom. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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