SCOTT SIMON, HOST:
Negotiations toward a cease-fire in the war in Gaza restarted this week. The effect of any agreement would go far beyond just Gaza and Israel. NPR's Jane Arraf sat down in Beirut with the spokesman for Hezbollah, the Lebanese militant and political group. Ibrahim Al-Moussawi warned that the only way he sees to avert the threat of an all-out war in Israel's border with Lebanon is to end the war in Gaza. NPR's Jane Arraf joins us now. Thanks for being with us.
JANE ARRAF, BYLINE: Thank you.
SIMON: It does seem like a tense time with attacks on both sides of the border. What did the spokesmen say about the risks of a wider war?
ARRAF: Well, Scott, he didn't discount it, but basically, he said that because everyone - Lebanon, Israel, the United States - understands the tremendous risks, it's less likely to happen on purpose. Let's listen.
IBRAHIM AL-MOUSSAWI: Everybody knows now that Hezbollah has only used 5% of its military capabilities and might against the Israel. Why didn't we start an all-out war? Because we don't want that.
ARRAF: He said if a war did start, it wouldn't be contained just to Israel and Lebanon.
AL-MOUSSAWI: It's going to be the war of the axis, of the whole axis. It will start - they can never control. They cannot monopolize. They cannot know the domino effect where it reaches.
ARRAF: And that whole axis includes Iran, which Al-Moussawi says supplies and supports Hezbollah, and Iran-backed armed groups in Iraq and Yemen, which have also been attacking Israel.
SIMON: How powerful is Hezbollah right now?
ARRAF: Well, it's a lot more powerful than the Lebanese military. It was founded for that reason, really - to fight Israel after Israel invaded Lebanon in 1982. It's classified in the United States as a terrorist organization, but in addition to its fighters, it's also a key player in the Lebanese Parliament and in government. Moussawi, the spokesman, is himself a member of Parliament. The important thing, Scott, is that Hezbollah in 2024 is much more powerful and much better equipped than it was almost two decades ago when Israel invaded again, and Hezbollah fought them to a standstill.
SIMON: How is Hezbollah more powerful today?
ARRAF: They have more sophisticated weapons. Hezbollah has drones that have penetrated Israel's air defenses. They have huge stockpiles of rockets that can reach most of Israel. They have an extremely committed fighting force in the largely Shia south of Lebanon. I spoke with former intelligence analyst Harrison Mann. He resigned from the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency to protest what he sees as a deeply flawed U.S. policy in Gaza. He says Hezbollah's defensive capabilities are as good as any military in the region. He said until the Gaza War started in October, Israel and Hezbollah were conducting tit-for-tat attacks designed not to escalate. But after that...
HARRISON MANN: What's different now, of course, is that Hezbollah feels it cannot let up until there's a cease-fire in Gaza. It's, as an organization, founded to resist Israel, but they feel like they can't totally stand down until the Gaza issue is resolved.
ARRAF: And he says that puts Israel in a position of feeling they can't stop either.
SIMON: What would stop this, Jane?
ARRAF: Here's Al-Moussawi on that subject.
AL-MOUSSAWI: First, the doorway to stop all of this is stop the killing in Gaza, to reach a cease-fire, and then the all-front would stop.
ARRAF: Israel and Hamas have been holding in direct negotiations. Hamas had insisted on a permanent cease-fire, but has now said it will accept an initial temporary one. Al-Moussawi said, either way, Hezbollah would follow the lead of Hamas.
SIMON: NPR's Jane Arraf speaking with us from Beirut. Thanks so much.
ARRAF: Thank you, Scott. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
NPR transcripts are created on a rush deadline by an NPR contractor. This text may not be in its final form and may be updated or revised in the future. Accuracy and availability may vary. The authoritative record of NPR’s programming is the audio record.
